# Dutch Mortgage Rate Forecast 2026

> What will Dutch mortgage rates do in 2026? We explain the factors behind the trend and what it means for your mortgage, from our office in Tilburg.

https://www.belderbrandt.nl/en/mortgage-advice/mortgage-rate-forecast-2026 · English

Mortgage rates never stand still, and "where are rates heading?" is a question we hear almost daily at our office in Tilburg. On this page we keep you up to date on the current rate trend, explain which factors drive mortgage rates in the Netherlands, and show what that means in practice, whether you are buying a house or your fixed-rate period is coming to an end. A rate forecast is never a guarantee, so we also tell you straight away why you should not follow one blindly.

## Where rates stand right now

The European Central Bank, inflation, capital market rates and developments on the financial markets all influence Dutch mortgage rates. On this page we track the current trend and explain which factors matter most. A forecast remains a forecast: nobody knows in advance exactly where mortgage rates will be in three or six months.

## What actually determines mortgage rates

Several factors shape mortgage rates. ECB policy plays a part, but for longer fixed-rate periods the capital market rate matters most. Inflation expectations, movements on the financial markets and lenders' own funding costs also feed into the rates you are offered. That is why mortgage rates do not automatically move one for one with the ECB rate.

## Buying a house in Tilburg right now: where you stand

If you buy now, you calculate with today's rate, not with an average from an article. In the Tilburg area we often see buyers torn between locking in now and waiting for a lower rate. With the current outlook, waiting is no guaranteed win: rates are just as likely to edge up as to edge down. More important than perfect timing is a mortgage that fits your income, your plans for the coming years and your appetite for risk.

## Your fixed-rate period is ending: what now?

If your [fixed-rate period](https://www.belderbrandt.nl/en/mortgage-advice/end-of-fixed-rate-period) ends this year or next, it is wise to look well ahead at what your new rate could be. Whether that turns out higher or lower than your current rate depends on the market rate at that moment. You can compare different fixed-rate periods side by side, and also consider whether refinancing, making extra repayments or switching to a different mortgage type would be worthwhile.

## Why a general forecast is never the whole story

Everything above is about the market as a whole. Your personal situation, your income, the value of your home, your mortgage and your appetite for risk ultimately determine which rate and fixed-rate period make sense for you. So use a rate forecast to understand the market, not as a prediction of your own future rate.

*This page is updated periodically based on recent market developments. Any percentages and expectations mentioned are not guarantees.*

**From my experience: My view on rates goes back to my trading days**

I used to trade on the stock exchange. That background means I watch market prices, and with them interest rates, more closely than most. In my years as an options trader I followed every press conference live: Ben Bernanke, Mario Draghi, Christine Lagarde and others. Central bankers never say anything truly explicit, so you learn to sense what they mean behind the cryptic phrasing. The rate change announced that day matters, but the tone and the hints about the months ahead are at least as interesting. In June 2026 the ECB raised its rate from 2% to 2.25%. This happened amid considerable unrest around the United States and Iran. As long as the situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains unclear, the oil price keeps swinging back and forth. That keeps shifting inflation expectations, which in turn is one of the variables that determines where interest rates go. My own expectation is that things will settle down within about a year and that rates will then slowly but surely start to come down again. Not fast, not sharply, but the direction does look downward.

## Curious what this means for your mortgage?

Rate forecasts are interesting, but they say nothing about your own situation. Want to know what today's rates mean for you in concrete terms, whether you are house-hunting in Tilburg or watching your fixed-rate period run out? Call us on 06 52 69 88 22 or email Martin@belderbrandt.nl for a no-obligation conversation. No sales pitch, just a clear answer to your question.